Konold et al. (1991)

Novice views on randomness
Konold, Clifford E.
Lohmeier, J.
Pollatsek, Alexander W.
Well, Arnold D.
Falk, Ruma
Lipson, A.

In R. G.Underhill (Ed.), Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education North American, Chapter, 1, pp. 167-173. Blacksburg: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

Novices and experts rated 18 phenomena as random or non-random and gave justifications for their decisions. Experts rated more of the situations as random than novices. Roughly 90% of the novice justifications were based on reasoning via a) equal likelihood, b) possibility, c) uncertainty, and d) causality.

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